Taking advantage of low-carbonization, demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials is expected to explode
The demand for high-performance NdFeB in the field of new energy vehicles is growing fastest.In 2018, the demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets in the field of new energy vehicles accounted for 11.8% of the total demand in downstream industries. High-performance NdFeB is widely used in traditional automobiles, new energy automobiles, industrial applications, wind power generation, consumer electronics, inverter air conditioners, and energy-saving elevators. The demand in 2018 accounted for 37.5%, 11.8%, 10.9%, 10%, respectively. 9.1%, 9% and 8.4%, the total global demand for high-performance NdFeB permanent magnet materials in 2018 is about 60,000-70,000 tons.
1) In the field of new energy vehicles, it is mainly used in the production of permanent magnet drive motors and some auto parts, and the demand accounts for 11.8%.
2) In the traditional automobile field, high-performance NdFeB magnets are mainly used in EPS core components, ABS systems and automobile oil pumps in traditional automobiles, and the demand accounts for 37.5%.
3) Industrial applications, which can be used in the production of electric tools, industrial robots, and linear motor pumping units in the petroleum industry, and the demand accounts for 10.9%.
4) In the field of wind power generation, it is mainly used to manufacture permanent magnet direct-drive wind turbines, and the demand accounts for 10%.
5) In the field of consumer electronics, it can be used in smart phones (mobile phone linear vibration motors, cameras), TWS headsets, voice coil motors (VCM) and many other consumer electronics products. The demand in this field in 18 years accounted for 9.1%.
6) In the field of inverter air conditioners, it is mainly used for compressors in energy-saving inverter air conditioners, and the demand accounts for 9%.
7) Energy-saving elevators are mainly used in permanent magnet synchronous motor traction machines, and the demand accounts for 8.4%.
8) Other fields, including medical equipment, household appliances, etc., account for 3.3% of the demand.
High-performance NdFeB permanent magnet materials are used in lighter, smaller and more efficient permanent magnet synchronous motors for new energy vehicles.There are four types of motors in the field of new energy vehicles: DC motors, induction motors (asynchronous motors), switched reluctance motors, and permanent magnet motors. The permanent magnet synchronous motor is lighter, smaller and more efficient. It can increase the speed and ensure the power while reducing the quality by 35%. At the same time, the permanent magnet synchronous motor has better starting performance, higher peak efficiency, and good reliability. Therefore, most new energy vehicles use permanent magnet synchronous motors, such as Tesla model 3 and some domestic electric vehicles. As the third-generation permanent magnet material, high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnet materials have excellent magnetic properties and are used to manufacture permanent magnet rotors, the core component of permanent magnet synchronous motors.
In the context of continued growth in sales of new energy vehicles, the application prospects of neodymium iron boron magnets as raw materials for rare earth permanent magnet motors are huge.
1) From 2011 to 2019, the CAGR of China's new energy vehicle sales was 160%. As an important new energy vehicle market in the world (the global sales accounted for 55% in 19 years), China's new energy vehicle market has grown rapidly in the past five years. In 2019, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.2261 million, and the penetration rate increased to 4.60%. In December 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles in China in a single month was 210,000, a year-on-year increase of 53.6%/15.6%, and it is expected to maintain high growth in the future.
2) From 2016 to 2019, the global new energy vehicle market is also growing rapidly, from 744,000 vehicles in 2016 to 2.21 million vehicles in 2019, with a CAGR of 31.3%. In December 2020, European new energy vehicle sales reached 235,000 in a single month, an increase of 210%/37.4% from the previous month, continuing the high boom since 2020.
3) From 2016 to 2019, the global rare earth permanent magnet motor industry has grown to US$11.5 billion. With the growth of new energy vehicles, the global rare earth permanent magnet motor industry market has gradually expanded, from 8.772 billion US dollars in 2016 to 11.532 billion US dollars in 2019, with a CAGR of 9.55%.
4) NdFeB has superior properties, and its penetration rate in new energy vehicles will be further improved. Since the magnetic properties of NdFeB permanent magnets are higher than that of samarium cobalt permanent magnets, and the price is lower than that of rare earth cobalt permanent magnets, they are extremely cost-effective. Therefore, it is expected that the application of NdFeB permanent magnets in rare earth permanent magnet synchronous motors will gradually penetration.
The global demand for neodymium-iron-boron for new energy vehicles is expected to grow to 35,100 tons in 2025, which is 6.35 times the demand in 2019. According to the China Automobile Association’s forecast of 1.8 million domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2021, an increase of 10.9% year-on-year, we predict that the domestic sales of new energy vehicles will increase from 1.21 million to 5.55 million in 2019-2025, with a CAGR of 30%. New energy vehicles will increase from 2.21 million to 14.05 million, with a CAGR of 36.96%; assuming that the demand for NdFeB for new energy bicycles is 2.5 kg, the demand for NdFeB for new energy vehicles in China will increase from 3,025 tons to 1.39 10,000 tons, with a CAGR of 33%; the global demand for neodymium-iron-boron for new energy vehicles will increase from 5525 tons to 35,100 tons, with a CAGR of 35%.
The rapid development of wind power and other energy-saving and environmental protection industries is driving the demand for high-performance NdFeB magnetic materials.High-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnet materials are used in EPS, ABS, automobile oil pumps and other components in traditional automobiles. In traditional cars, high-performance NdFeB magnets are mainly used in the manufacture of EPS (Electric Power Steering System). Due to the excellent magnetic properties of high-performance NdFeB magnets, its application can enable EPS to provide the best assistance to the car under various driving conditions, making the car more stable and safe to steer, thereby obtaining more excellent steering performance.In 2019, global car sales fell 4% year-on-year to 90.32 million vehicles. High-performance NdFeB magnets are the core material for EPS production. According to the China Automobile Association, domestic automobile sales are expected to exceed 26 million in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Although the compound growth rate of traditional automobile sales has slowed in recent years, EPS penetration The increase in the rate will still increase the consumption of NdFeB. From 2019 to 2025, assuming that the EPS penetration rate increases from 60% to 80%, and the demand for NdFeB per EPS is 0.25 kg, the global demand for NdFeB EPS will increase from 15,354 tons to 19,736 tons, which is 2019 1.29 times the annual demand, CAGR is 4%.
With the global new installed capacity of wind power and the increase in the penetration rate of permanent magnet direct-drive generators, the global demand for neodymium iron boron for wind power may reach 24,000 tons in 2025, twice the demand in 2019. According to GWEC's forecast, from 2019 to 2024, the global new installed capacity of wind power will increase from 64 million kilowatts to 73 million kilowatts, with a CAGR of 3.98%. From 2019 to 2025, assuming that the global penetration rate of direct-drive wind turbines will increase from 30% to 47%, and the installed capacity of direct-drive wind turbines per 100 million kilowatts corresponds to the demand of 67,000 tons of neodymium iron boron, the global wind power The demand for NdFeB will increase from 12,000 tons to 24,000 tons, with a CAGR of 12%.
The penetration rate of high-performance NdFeB magnetic materials in the field of inverter air conditioners will gradually increase. It is expected that the global NdFeB NdFeB inverter consumption will increase to 9552 tons in 2025, which is three times the demand in 2019. It is estimated that by 2025, the global sales of inverter air conditioners will increase to 226.53 million units. Assuming that the amount of NdFeB used in each air conditioner is 70 grams, the penetration rate of NdFeB in inverter air conditioners will increase from 45% to 80% in 2019-2025. Then the global NdFeB consumption of inverter air conditioners will increase from 3142 tons to 9,552 tons, CAGR is 20.4%.
The 5G replacement wave will lead to a rebound in smartphone production. It is estimated that the global demand for NdFeB for smartphones will rise to 3702 tons in 2025, an increase of 12% compared to 2019. 5G will lead the trend of smartphone replacement, thereby increasing the demand for NdFeB magnets for smartphones. According to IDC data, from 2019 to 2025, smartphone sales are expected to increase from 1.36 billion units to 1.48 billion units. Assuming that a single use of NdFeB smartphones is 2.5 grams, the global demand for NdFeB smartphones will increase from 3400 tons. Increased to 3702 tons, CAGR was 1.4%.
With the deepening of the application of science and technology, more and more emerging application fields will be developed, which will add to the growth of the demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials. Based on the above analysis, we believe that with the rapid development of low-carbon economy, the energy-saving and environmental protection industries represented by new energy vehicles and wind power have entered a period of rapid development, which has brought strong demand for high-performance neodymium ferromagnetic permanent magnet materials. Performance rare earth permanent magnet materials will maintain rapid demand growth in the next five years, and the market prospects are very promising. According to the results of our previous calculations, the total of high-performance NdFeB magnets required by the three low-carbon economy representative industries of new energy vehicles, wind power generation, and energy-saving home appliances by 2025 exceeds the global high-performance NdFeB magnets in 2019 The total demand for magnetic materials and the market prospects are very worth looking forward to.
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