The supply of high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials is limited, and leading companies continue to benefi.Taking NdFeB magnetic material blanks as an example, according to the China Rare Earth Industry Association data, the global output of NdFeB material blanks in 2018 was 185,000 tons, of which the output of high-performance NdFeB blanks was only 48,000 tons, accounting for about 26%; China The output of NdFeB blanks is 157,000 tons, of which the output of high-performance NdFeB blanks is only 23,000 tons, accounting for about 15%. Whether it is the global market or the domestic market, there is still room for improvement in the output of high-performance NdFeB.
Taking sintered NdFeB magnets as an example, from the perspective of production concentration, Chinese companies with an annual output of more than 3,000 tons account for only 7.5%, while those with an annual output of less than 1,500 tons account for 84%, and most of the magnetic companies have less than 1,500 tons, and the industry's largest magnetic material company has an annual production capacity of close to 20,000 tons.High-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials, leading companies benefit from the growth of the new energy vehicle sector. With the gradual recovery of the downstream new energy automotive industry of rare earth permanent magnet materials, leading traditional automotive vehicles, including Volkswagen, Daimler, Toyota, and Nissan, will gradually expand their new Energy vehicle business. The new energy vehicles of Chinese and European automakers may exceed expectations.
It is estimated that by 2025, among the five application fields of high-performance NdFeB magnetic materials, the demand for new energy vehicles is the largest and the fastest growing.
1) The field of new energy vehicles will become the largest consumer of high-performance NdFeB magnetic materials. From 2019 to 2025, it is expected that the demand for NdFeB magnetic materials for new energy vehicles will rapidly increase from 5525 tons to 35,100 tons. The CAGR is 35%; the proportion of demand will increase from 12% to 33%.
2) The proportion of wind power demand increased from 10% to 22%. Although the demand for high-performance NdFeB in other downstream sectors may increase, the growth rate is not as good as the new energy vehicle sector.
3) In 2025, the demand for EPS/smart phones will be reduced to 18%/3.4% respectively.
It is expected that the demand for new energy vehicles in the downstream field of NdFeB magnetic materials will increase to 32%.The demand for high-performance NdFeB magnetic materials is growing rapidly, and the supply of Pr and NdO may be in short supply. New energy vehicles, home appliances, and consumer electronics drive high demand for downstream high-performance NdFeB magnets, while the supply side is relatively stable. It is expected that NdPr and NdO will enter a shortage cycle in 2021-2025, and the price of NdPr and NdO may continue to rise. The industry is booming. The degree will also continue to improve. Leading neodymium iron boron companies benefit from the rapid increase in downstream demand and the profit growth brought about by the moderate increase in rare earth prices. From the demand side, new energy vehicles and other fields will drive high demand for high-performance NdFeB. It is estimated that the global demand for NdFeB will be 278,000, 302,000, and 324,000 tons from 2023 to 2025, and the demand for NdPrO2 They were 85,000, 92, and 99,000 tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 8.5%, and 7.5%. On the supply side, the global supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is expected to be 8.0, 84, and 89,000 tons from 2023 to 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 2%, 5%, and 5% respectively. The supply gap will expand year by year, and the supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide may exceed demand.
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